Assessment of the terrorist threat in 2026
Published 12 February 2026
The main terrorist threat against Sweden is still posed by lone violent Islamist actors and violent right-wing extremists. This was reported by the National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment (NCT) in its annual assessment for 2026.
The terrorist threat is part of a broader security threat, affected by conflicts in the Middle East, and the war in Ukraine. The ideological motive has also changed towards more individual motives. At the same time, terrorist organisations, as well as foreign states, use organised crime to gain access to weapons, or to take actions in such a way that they are plausibly deniable.
– The terrorist threat to Sweden and the rest of Europe is more multifaceted now than it was a few years ago. Traditional terrorist organisations are no longer the biggest threat. Instead, we see other threat-inducing factors, says Ahn-Za Hagström, Head of the National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment (NCT).
In 2025, one terrorist attack motivated by violent Islamism was thwarted in Sweden. In 2026, the NCT assesses that the main threat-inducing factors are propaganda and violent narratives, mainly from violent Islamism and violent right-wing extremism. The assessment remains that certain individuals, who are often young, can be radicalised rapidly and encourage others to carry out violent acts.
– Violence and propaganda are spread on more and wider platforms which are often frequented by young individuals, for example on social media and gaming platforms, says Ahn-Za Hagström.
Traditional terrorist organisations still have a general intent to carry out terrorist attacks in the West. However, Europe is mainly used as a platform to finance terrorism and, in some cases, convince individuals to travel to conflict areas.
State actors are still assessed to be able to use proxies to commit terrorist crimes in such a way that these actions are plausibly deniable.
About the National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment (NCT)
The National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment (NCT) is a permanent working group staffed by personnel from the National Defence Radio Establishment, the Military Intelligence and Security Service, and the Swedish Security Service. The National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment (NCT) produces strategic assessments of the terrorist threat to Sweden and Swedish interests.
Published
12 February 2026
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